Revised industry plan

The industry plan for a complex part of the UK rail network was being significantly revised, placing new and difficult demands on the train operator. Sophisticated resource modelling for over 2,000 traincrew was required to support an evidence-based franchise amendment.

Our Solution

A major data hub containing historic (4 years) availability/utilisation data by driver by day, and diagram numbers for past and all future timetable options by route/depot.

A workforce model that calculates resource requirements five years ahead by depot and financial grade, taking account of recruitment plans, training schemes and turnover rates.

A model that simulates rest day working reliance for all planning scenarios, reflecting the precise variability in resource levels, caused by holidays, absence and training.

A training release model that calculates the impact of an additional 80 training courses, allowing for alterations in completion deadlines, increased number of trainees and union negotiated course lengths exceeding bid assumptions.

A summary metrics file to calculate the incremental change in FTE and RDW versus bid baselines, accounting for other in-life changes not related to the industry plan revision.

Features and Benefits

The data hub provides a single update point for propagating data and assumptions throughout all models, enabling fast-moving, multi-variable planning to be tightly controlled.

Features within the workforce model allow key planning assumptions to be switched on or off, enabling different planning scenarios to be compared in an informed way.

The summary metrics file, incorporating powerful data visualisation, allows the financial implications of each planning scenario for the DfT and franchisee to be clearly understood.


The results of our analysis were accepted by all parties, ultimately leading to an agreed settlement.